Types of Trend-Based Planning:
Current Year Actual Average:
This method does the Average of Actual Months’ Data of the Current year and make adjustment provided by us.
Input Data:
Current year actual months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
Volume | 100 | 90 | 80 | 100 | 120 | 110 | 130 |
Calculation:
Calculate the Average of actual months:
Average =7 = 104
10 % (104) = 10.4
104+10.4 = 115.
Output:
The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.
Current year Forecast Months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 115 | 115 | 115 | 115 | 115 |
Current Period Actual:
This method Considers the Latest months’ Actual data of the current year and make adjustment provided by us.
Input Data:
Current year actual months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
Volume | 100 | 90 | 80 | 100 | 120 | 110 | 130 |
Calculation:
It picks the last month of actual months i.e., Jul = 130
10% (130) =13
130 + 13 = 143.
Output:
The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.
Current year Forecast Months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 |
Hold Forecast to Current Year Plan:
This method calculates the difference between the Actual data of the current year and the Plan data of the Current year, and the difference arrived would be apportioned to the remaining months in the current year.
Input Data:
Current year actual months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
Volume | 100 | 90 | 80 | 100 | 120 | 110 | 130 |
Current year plan months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Calculation:
Sum of Actual months = 730
Sum of Plan months = 1200
Difference of Actual months and Plan months = 470
Difference / No. of forecast months = 470/5 = 94.
Output:
The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.
Forecast Months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 |
Prior Year Actual Average:
This method does the Average of Actual data from the Previous year and make adjustment provided by us.
Input Data:
Prior year Actual Months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 100 | 110 | 120 | 120 | 110 | 130 | 120 | 110 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 134 |
Calculation:
Average of Actual months = 117
10 % (117) = 11.7
117 + 11.7 = 128
Output:
The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.
Current year forecast months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 |
Prior Year Actual with Seasonality:
This method considers the Actual monthly data of the respective month of the previous year and makes adjustments provided by us.
Input Data:
Prior year actual months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 100 | 110 | 120 | 120 | 110 | 130 | 120 | 110 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 134 |
Calculation:
For example: Aug = 110
10 % (110) = 11
110 + 11 = 121
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year forecast months.
Current year forecast months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 121 | 116 | 131 | 132 | 147 |
Forecast Average:
This method only applies in “Plan Scenario”. This method does the Average of Forecast data of the Previous year and the data arrived would be copied to Plan months.
Input Data:
Prior year forecast months | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 100 | 110 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 100 | 105 | 100 | 120 | 120 |
Calculation:
Average of Forecast months = 101
10 % (101) = 10.1
101 + 10.1 = 111
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to the current year plan months.
Current year plan months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 |
Forecast with Seasonality:
This method only applies in “Plan Scenario”. This method takes into account the Forecast data for the respective month of the Previous Year and adjusts provided by us.
Input Data:
Prior year Forecasted months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 110 | 100 | 110 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 100 | 105 | 100 | 120 | 120 |
Calculation:
For example: Jan = 110
10 % (110) = 11
110 + 11 = 121
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year Plan month.
Current year Plan months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 121 | 110 | 121 | 110 | 121 | 132 | 143 | 110 | 116 | 110 | 132 | 132 |
Year over year increase/decrease:
This method can be used in “Plan Scenario”. This method takes into account the Plan data for respective months of the Previous Year and Make adjustment provided by us.
Input Data:
Prior year plan months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 90 | 100 | 120 | 90 | 100 | 120 | 90 | 100 | 120 | 100 | 120 | 110 |
Calculation:
For example: Jan = 90
10 % (90) = 9
90 + 9 = 99.
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year Plan month.
Current year Plan months | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 99 | 110 | 132 | 99 | 110 | 132 | 99 | 110 | 132 | 110 | 132 | 121 |
Clear Trend:
Clears the previously set trend.
Monthly Growth:
This method Calculates growth increase/decrease by considering the Prior month’s Actual data of the current and Previous year and adding that Growth percentage to the respective month’s Actual data of the previous year.
Input Data:
Current year Actual Months | Jul |
Volume | 130 |
Prior year Actual Months | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 120 | 110 | 105 | 119 | 120 | 134 |
Calculation:
For example, Jul = 130
Growth = 130-120/120 = 0.08
Aug =110+(110*0.08) = 119
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to respective month of Current year Forecast month.
Current year Forecast Months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 119 | 114 | 129 | 130 | 145 |
Prior Month Run Rate:
This month Add the prescribed percentage to the Prior month’s Actual data.
Input Data:
Current year Actual Months | Jul |
Volume | 130 |
Calculation:
For example
Aug = 130 + 10 % (130) = 143
Output:
The value which is arrived is copied to the Current year Forecast months.
Current year Forecast Months | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Volume | 143 | 157 | 173 | 190 | 209 |
2 thoughts on “Trend-Based Planning in EPBCS”
Amazing Blog! Thank you!
This is indeed a great way to explain all EPBCS Trend Options with the apt context and numeric examples. Kudos to the team for all the efforts.
Thank you!