Trend-Based Planning in EPBCS

Trend-Based Planning in EPBCS

Types of Trend-Based Planning:

Current Year Actual Average:

This method does the Average of Actual Months’ Data of the Current year and make adjustment provided by us.

Input Data:

Current year actual monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Volume1009080100120110130

Calculation:

Calculate the Average of actual months:

Average =7 = 104

10 % (104) = 10.4

104+10.4 = 115.

Output:

 The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.

Current year Forecast MonthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume115115115115115

Current Period Actual:

This method Considers the Latest months’ Actual data of the current year and make adjustment provided by us.

Input Data:

Current year actual monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Volume1009080100120110130

Calculation:

It picks the last month of actual months i.e., Jul = 130

10% (130) =13

130 + 13 = 143.

Output:

The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.

Current year Forecast MonthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume143143143143143

Hold Forecast to Current Year Plan:

This method calculates the difference between the Actual data of the current year and the Plan data of the Current year, and the difference arrived would be apportioned to the remaining months in the current year.

Input Data:

Current year actual monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
Volume1009080100120110130
Current year plan monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume100100100100100100100100100100100100

Calculation:

Sum of Actual months = 730

Sum of Plan months = 1200

Difference of Actual months and Plan months = 470

Difference / No. of forecast months = 470/5 = 94.

Output:

The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.

Forecast MonthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume9494949494

Prior Year Actual Average:

This method does the Average of Actual data from the Previous year and make adjustment provided by us.

Input Data:

Prior year Actual MonthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume100110120120110130120110105119120134

Calculation:

Average of Actual months = 117

10 % (117) = 11.7

117 + 11.7 = 128

Output:

The value which is derived is copied to all forecast months.

Current year forecast monthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume128128128128128

Prior Year Actual with Seasonality:

This method considers the Actual monthly data of the respective month of the previous year and makes adjustments provided by us.

Input Data:

Prior year actual monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume100110120120110130120110105119120134

Calculation:

For example: Aug = 110

10 % (110) = 11

110 + 11 = 121

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year forecast months.

Current year forecast monthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume121116131132147

Forecast Average:

This method only applies in “Plan Scenario”. This method does the Average of Forecast data of the Previous year and the data arrived would be copied to Plan months.

Input Data:

Prior year forecast monthsFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume100110100110120130100105100120120

Calculation:

Average of Forecast months = 101

10 % (101) = 10.1

101 + 10.1 = 111

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to the current year plan months.

Current year plan monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume111111111111111111111111111111111111

Forecast with Seasonality:

This method only applies in “Plan Scenario”. This method takes into account the Forecast data for the respective month of the Previous Year and adjusts provided by us.

Input Data:

Prior year Forecasted monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume110100110100110120130100105100120120

Calculation:

For example: Jan = 110

10 % (110) = 11

110 + 11 = 121

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year Plan month.

Current year Plan monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume121110121110121132143110116110132132

Year over year increase/decrease:

This method can be used in “Plan Scenario”. This method takes into account the Plan data for respective months of the Previous Year and Make adjustment provided by us.

Input Data:

Prior year plan monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume901001209010012090100120100120110

Calculation:

For example: Jan = 90

10 % (90) = 9

90 + 9 = 99.

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to the respective month of the Current year Plan month.

Current year Plan monthsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume991101329911013299110132110132121

Clear Trend:

Clears the previously set trend.

Monthly Growth:

This method Calculates growth increase/decrease by considering the Prior month’s Actual data of the current and Previous year and adding that Growth percentage to the respective month’s Actual data of the previous year.

Input Data:

Current year Actual MonthsJul
Volume130
Prior year Actual MonthsJulAugSepOctNovDec
Volume120110105119120134

Calculation:

For example, Jul = 130

Growth = 130-120/120 = 0.08

Aug =110+(110*0.08) = 119

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to respective month of Current year Forecast month.

Current year Forecast MonthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume119114129130145

Prior Month Run Rate:

This month Add the prescribed percentage to the Prior month’s Actual data.

Input Data:

Current year Actual MonthsJul
Volume130

Calculation:

For example

Aug = 130 + 10 % (130) = 143

Output:

The value which is arrived is copied to the Current year Forecast months.

Current year Forecast MonthsAugSepOctNovDec
Volume143157173190209

2 thoughts on “Trend-Based Planning in EPBCS”

  1. This is indeed a great way to explain all EPBCS Trend Options with the apt context and numeric examples. Kudos to the team for all the efforts.

    Thank you!

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